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Wingspan Estimates Eliminate Hoaxes

Recent analysis of recently-accumulated data shows that no significant number of hoaxes could have been involved in fifty-seven of the ninety-eight eyewitness sighting reports in which wingspans were numerically estimated. In other words, no hoax or hoaxes had any major influence on the living-pterosaur investigations.

This had been shown in an earlier study, when less data was available. A larger sampling of eyewitness testimonies now confirms the earlier conclusion: no hoaxes, or at least so few of them that the result is unimportant.

A Hoax in Wingspan Estimates?

Most of the 98 sighting reports, from which the 57 with wingspan estimates were taken, suggest flying creatures that have long tails like Rhamphorhynchoids. That is where the idea comes from for the possibility that hoaxers may have tried to conjure up that type of pterosaur in their hoaxes. But the data shows something far different from what is commonly believed about Rhamphorhynchoids, for the size-estimates do not fall sharply at around five-to-seven-feet, but gradually decline at huge wingspans, far larger than what is standard-size for even the largest flying birds of modern times.

Hoax of Pterosaurs

How do I know that these reports are not the result of hoaxes? . . .  With many eyewitnesses, with sightings in many American states, I have found something interesting about reports of featherless appearances. A hoax would be expected to include certainty of no-feathers, for why would a hoaxer want to leave any room for doubt? But the overall descriptions in the many sighting reports I have examined show something different: The definitely-no-feathers are out-numbered by the probably-no-feathers. Since actual sightings would involve many conditions (distance from creature, visibility, angle of view), some eyewitnesses would not get a clear enough view to be really sure the creature had no feathers. That is what I have received from many eyewitnesses: What is natural for true sightings but unnatural for hoaxes.

Eyewitness Reports NOT From Hoaxes

“‘Pterodactyls’ are more likely living creatures than hoaxes, according to three separate factors analyzed from eyewitness accounts across the U.S.: Hoaxes have been eliminated as a significant cause of reports.” (Press release in News Blaze and other online news-release pages) I wrote that press release after analyzing the overall eyewitness testimonies in my new nonfiction book Live Pterosaurs in America.

“More likely” understates the case, for no combination of hoaxes can explain the overall data.

Wingspan Estimates

Eyewitness estimates of wingspan “are [27% of them] within . . . 8-10 feet . . . far too small or too big for hoaxers.” Any American trying to pass off a hoax would likely choose standard-model fossil knowledge (Rhamphorhynchoid fossils are small) or ropen reports (mostly much larger than ten feet in wingspan). The peek of eight-to-ten feet is statistical evidence against a hoax or combination of hoaxes.

Details About Featherless Appearance

“Probably” featherless outnumbered “definitely” featherless by about two-to-one, so most eyewitnesses (or supposed eyewitnesses) admitted that they were not certain. This is what we would expect of honest persons who observed something in imperfect (typical) conditions. The point? Why would a hoaxer avoid being positive about featherlessness while trying to convince somebody of a living pterosaur? It is unlikely that even one hoaxer would have thought of that; hoaxers from across the United States, all thinking of that detail–that is unbelievable. So the eyewitnesses (at least as a whole) were telling the truth about what they saw. (Accuracy of interpretation is another subject.)

Long Tails

“The great majority of movie and television portrayals of pterosaurs are of short-tailed Pterodactyloids. In addition, textbooks declare that those were the more-recent pterosaurs.” About 80% of American eyewitness reports of apparent living pterosaurs–that is a lot of long tails, notwithstanding critics’ insinuations of tall tales. If Americans were constantly sending me hoaxes, however, they would be of short-tailed or no-tailed pterosaurs, for that is what is commonly portrayed in our society. That is the third nail in the coffin for the hoax hypothesis.

Refutation of the Pterosaur Hoax Idea (no hoaxes were involved)

Forget about the article in The Illustrated London News (1856) about workmen in a railway-line tunnel in France. It is commonly accepted that the “pterodactyl” that stumbled out of the stone was a hoax. . . . [but] Interviewing eyewitnesses of apparent living pterosaurs, over the past five years, I know that a hoax (or a number of hoaxes) could not have produced the answers they have given me. While writing my book (“Live Pterosaurs in America,” . . .